DEBUG: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/london4eu/pages/5/features/original/heart_photo.png?1501497680
DEBUG:
DEBUG: blog_post
2019 v 2014
28 May, 2019

Brexit parties down in the polls

London4Europe Committee member Michael Romberg compares votes in the 2014 and 2019 European Parliament elections in London. All pro-Brexit parties have done badly in 2019 compared with 2014. All pro-EU parties have done well. There should be a lesson there both for Jeremy Corbyn and for any of the dozen or so hopefuls who wish to lead the Conservative Party. 

 

Chart 1 shows the results of the 2019 European Parliament elections in London

 

Chart 2 shows how the vote shares changed from 2014 (% growth or fall)

 

 

The table below shows various political parties that fought the 2014 and 2019 elections, the votes they received and the % change in the vote.

In 2019, there were two parties that stood for little more than Brexit, including the Nigel Farage vehicle. In 2014, in addition to UKIP - the then Nigel Farage vehicle - there were half a dozen smaller parties that made leaving the EU the or a major part of their platform. I have therefore grouped them for comparison purposes.

2019 saw two new parties who made EU membership the or a major part of their platform: Change UK and the UK EU party; in addition three independents stood primarily on a pro-EU platform. 2014 also saw two parties for whom pro-EU was much of their raison d'être: the 4 Freedoms Party (UK EPP) - a UK branch of the pan-EU EPP; and the Europeans Party, set up in response to attacks on European nationals in the UK. I have grouped these as primarily pro-EU parties.

The table and Chart 2 show that support for parties that promote Brexit as the only or main part of their platform has remained constant. Broadly based parties that support Brexit (Conservative, Labour) have lost ground mainly to anti-Brexit parties. Broadly based parties that support EU membership as a major part of their programme (Green, Liberal Democrat) have gained ground.

Of course, not everyone took the parties' pro- or anti- Brexit stance as their main guide to voting. In addition, many people do not know what Labour's stance is, believe it to be something different from what it is or vote in the hope that it will change.

 

2019 2014

Change in Votes 2019 compared with 2014

Parties Votes Parties Votes

 Brexit

 UKIP

 

400, 257

46,497

TOTAL  446,754

 UKIP

 Independence from Europe

 British National Party

 NO2EU

 English Democrats

 Harmony Party

 Christian Peoples Alliance

 

371,133

26,675

19,246

3,804

10,142

1,985

23,702

TOTAL  456,687

- 2%
 Conservative 177,964  Conservative 495,639 - 64%
 Labour 536,810  Labour 806,959 - 33%
 Green 278,957  Green 196,419 + 42%
 Liberal Democrat 608,725  Liberal Democrat 148,013 + 311%

 Change UK

 UK EU Party

 3 independents

 

117,635

18,806

1,692

TOTAL  138,133

 4 Freedoms Party (UK EPP)

 Europeans Party 

 

28,014

10,712

TOTAL   38,726

+ 257%
 OTHER 54,338   58,032  
 TOTAL VALID VOTES 2,241,681   2,200,475 + 2%
 TOTAL REJECTED VOTES  17,397   25,207  
 TURNOUT 41.3%   40.5%  

 

Sources:

2019 election results: Regional Returning Officer

2014 election results: Mayor of London - London Datastore

Party stance 2019: UK EU Party; independents: Mike ShadIan Sowden and Andrea Venzon

Party stance 2014: BBC Report on the EU stance of most relevant parties, English Democrats (current manifesto).

 

 

 

Articles on this page reflect the views of the author and not necessarily of London4Europe