Brexit parties down in the polls
London4Europe Committee member Michael Romberg compares votes in the 2014 and 2019 European Parliament elections in London. All pro-Brexit parties have done badly in 2019 compared with 2014. All pro-EU parties have done well. There should be a lesson there both for Jeremy Corbyn and for any of the dozen or so hopefuls who wish to lead the Conservative Party.
Chart 1 shows the results of the 2019 European Parliament elections in London
Chart 2 shows how the vote shares changed from 2014 (% growth or fall)
The table below shows various political parties that fought the 2014 and 2019 elections, the votes they received and the % change in the vote.
In 2019, there were two parties that stood for little more than Brexit, including the Nigel Farage vehicle. In 2014, in addition to UKIP - the then Nigel Farage vehicle - there were half a dozen smaller parties that made leaving the EU the or a major part of their platform. I have therefore grouped them for comparison purposes.
2019 saw two new parties who made EU membership the or a major part of their platform: Change UK and the UK EU party; in addition three independents stood primarily on a pro-EU platform. 2014 also saw two parties for whom pro-EU was much of their raison d'être: the 4 Freedoms Party (UK EPP) - a UK branch of the pan-EU EPP; and the Europeans Party, set up in response to attacks on European nationals in the UK. I have grouped these as primarily pro-EU parties.
The table and Chart 2 show that support for parties that promote Brexit as the only or main part of their platform has remained constant. Broadly based parties that support Brexit (Conservative, Labour) have lost ground mainly to anti-Brexit parties. Broadly based parties that support EU membership as a major part of their programme (Green, Liberal Democrat) have gained ground.
Of course, not everyone took the parties' pro- or anti- Brexit stance as their main guide to voting. In addition, many people do not know what Labour's stance is, believe it to be something different from what it is or vote in the hope that it will change.
| 2019 | 2014 |
Change in Votes 2019 compared with 2014 |
||
| Parties | Votes | Parties | Votes | |
|
Brexit UKIP
|
400, 257 46,497 TOTAL 446,754 |
UKIP Independence from Europe British National Party NO2EU English Democrats Harmony Party Christian Peoples Alliance
|
371,133 26,675 19,246 3,804 10,142 1,985 23,702 TOTAL 456,687 |
- 2% |
| Conservative | 177,964 | Conservative | 495,639 | - 64% |
| Labour | 536,810 | Labour | 806,959 | - 33% |
| Green | 278,957 | Green | 196,419 | + 42% |
| Liberal Democrat | 608,725 | Liberal Democrat | 148,013 | + 311% |
|
Change UK UK EU Party 3 independents
|
117,635 18,806 1,692 TOTAL 138,133 |
4 Freedoms Party (UK EPP) Europeans Party
|
28,014 10,712 TOTAL 38,726 |
+ 257% |
| OTHER | 54,338 | 58,032 | ||
| TOTAL VALID VOTES | 2,241,681 | 2,200,475 | + 2% | |
| TOTAL REJECTED VOTES | 17,397 | 25,207 | ||
| TURNOUT | 41.3% | 40.5% | ||
Sources:
2019 election results: Regional Returning Officer
2014 election results: Mayor of London - London Datastore
Party stance 2019: UK EU Party; independents: Mike Shad, Ian Sowden and Andrea Venzon
Party stance 2014: BBC Report on the EU stance of most relevant parties, English Democrats (current manifesto).
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