YouGov - 15-16 April 2019
London4Europe Committee Member Michael Romberg works out what the opinion poll findings for the European Elections in London mean for seats. Remember: it’s just a poll – a snapshot that comes with a significant margin of error.
Data Source: YouGov - fieldwork 15-16 April 2019 223 replies in London, weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding don't know/ won't say/ won't vote (35% of London sample); using the question asked with no suppositions about party policy
TABLE 1: This table takes the opinion poll findings and turns them into seats using the D’Hondt method (read more about that here). Seats won in each round are shown in bold. Poll numbers are then adjusted for subsequent rounds of seat allocation.
|
|
Brex |
UKIP |
Con |
Lab |
Ch |
Grn |
LD |
O |
DK |
|
Poll |
15 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 1 | |
|
1 |
15 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 1 | |
|
2 |
15 | 8 | 17 | 12.5 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 1 | |
|
3 |
15 | 8 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 1 | |
|
4 |
15 | 8 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 1 | |
|
5 |
7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 1 | |
|
6 |
7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | 1 | |
|
7 |
7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | 1 | |
|
8 |
7.5 | 8 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | 1 | |
|
Total |
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Notes
Brex = Farage’s Brexit Party
Ch = Change UK, formerly The Independent Group of MPs
Grn = Green Party
LD = Liberal Democrats
O = other
DK = don’t know/ won’t say/ won’t vote/ refuse to answer
Note: because I am working on rounded numbers it is not possible to say for certain whether the 8th seat belongs to UKIP, Labour or Green.
CAVEATS
- It’s a poll. A snapshot in time. People’s views change. If “don’t know/ won’t say” is large, then their views could swamp small differences between parties once they decide.
- European elections normally have low turnout. Differential turnout amongst supporters of different parties could affect the result compared with a poll. Different polling companies have different methodologies for adjusting for turnout.
- The definition of “London” in the poll may not match the London polling region for the election.
- Polls come with a margin of error. On the highest level figures asking a question of the whole sample a rule of thumb is that polls come with a margin of +/- 3 percentage points (so 45% think this might be anything in the range 42%-48%). London figures are normally a subset of the poll so the margin of error is larger. A good sample size for a poll is 2,000 or so.
TABLE 2: this table works out a counterfactual allocation of seats if the Remain parties had joined on a single platform. The calculation assumes that the vote for the platform would be the sum of the votes for the individual parties. That would not be the case in real life – there are arguments for saying that a platform might do better or that it would do worse than the sum of the parties.
|
|
Brex |
UKIP |
Con |
Lab |
Remain |
O |
DK |
|
Poll |
15 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 34 | 1 | |
|
1 |
15 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 34 | 1 | |
|
2 |
15 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 1 | |
|
3 |
15 | 8 | 17 | 12.5 | 17 | 1 | |
|
4 |
15 | 8 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 17 | 1 | |
|
5 |
15 | 8 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 1 | |
|
6 |
7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 1 | |
|
7 |
7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 1 | |
|
8 |
7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 1 | |
|
Total |
1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Remain = sum of poll results for Change UK, Green and Liberal Democrats
ADDITIONAL CAVEAT
- My calculations are on rounded numbers and that might introduce an error when results are close.
- 3rd seat attributed arbitrarily to Conservative rather than Remain - but it makes no difference to the total.
- It is not clear who should have the 8th seat. Given to Conservatives as of the two most likely front-runners in that row they have the fewest seats