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Brexit unemployment by constituency
25 May, 2019

Show the local effect when you campaign

Here is a useful tool that you can use to make the harms of Brexit real in your local campaigning.

The University of Sussex UK Trade Policy Observatory has a new video explaining its December 2018 work setting out job losses from Brexit by constituency.

Watch the video here, read the technical explanation here, and read the blog that discusses the work. Slightly buried in the blog are the links to the results for individual constituencies for a no-Deal Brexit and a soft Brexit based on EEA membership (in the single market).

There is a more detailed account of definitions and methodology in the detailed study of the effect on constituencies in Hampshire and Sussex and the appendix to that study.

You should read the material so that you can answer questions about it. In particular, you need to understand that talking about job losses is a way of articulating the scale of the effect. It is not a forecast of what would happen. People and businesses could react to an economic shock by lower wages or hours rather than job losses, for example.

But in principle it allows you to write campaigning material that says: "A no-deal Brexit would cost the equivalent of XXX jobs located in the constituency. Even a "soft" Brexit would cost the equivalent of XXX jobs". And "A no-deal Brexit would cost residents in this constituency the equivalent of XXX jobs . Even a "soft" Brexit would cost residents the equivalent of XXX jobs."





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